讀書報告:《和理非抗爭如何成功》(文:First Crack)

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pic via screen capture

岩岩睇左本書 “why civil resistance works”。作者分析左 1900-2006 三百幾場大型抗爭運動,另外深入研究四個 case studies,嘗試解答兩個問題:
・武裝起義同和理非,邊樣有效啲?
・和理非成功靠咩條件?

為左公平起見,呢本書只考慮「對準政權」既運動:Anti-regime(反政權)、Anti-occupation(反入侵者)同 Secession(獨立)。環保、工人權益、八萬五果啲就排除在外。另外呢本書既武裝起義講緊要有 gun,至少有一千人戰死,所以而家香港大部份既抗爭都會被歸類為和理非。

係呢三種抗爭之中:
・反政權 – 和理非成功機會高武裝起義一倍 (60% vs 30%)
・反入侵者 – 成功機會相若 (35% vs 35%)
・獨立 – 武裝起義有用啲 (10% vs 0%)

係數字上睇,只要唔好搞港獨,運動成功既機會都唔細,不過再睇落去就冇咁明朗。

【和理非成功靠咩條件?】

本書既主旨係和理非抗爭最緊要靠「多人」。有幾個先天因素令和理非比較多人:
・和理非抗爭(例如遊行、人鏈、eye4hk)通常相對合法,可以公開招募參加者
・參加者冇咁大 commitment,被捕風險較低,上完街可以返屋企
・參與門檻冇咁高(唔使有能力衝,唔使咁多 gear)

人多有咩好處呢?
・冇咁易俾人一次拉晒。
・有機會 connect 到建制內既人(有待商榷)。
・如果抗爭者包含唔同性別、年齡、宗教信仰、行業、經濟能力既人,政府就冇得集中打壓其中一個群體,或者會誤傷街坊引發更大反彈。
・最重要既一點係,越多唔同背景既人就有越多知識、技能同資源。有機會動員到宗教組織或者各行各業既支持、更有機會打中痛處,至少可以兄弟爬山。

【Case studies 重點】

書入面有四個 case studies,分別係:
・1977-1979 伊朗伊斯蘭革命(成功)
・1987-1992 第一次巴勒斯坦大起義(階段性勝利,最後失敗)
・1983-1986 菲律賓人民力量革命(成功)
・1988-1990 緬甸民主運動(失敗)

呢幾場運動既誘因都包括左啲貪腐同經濟問題,但引爆民眾行出黎通常係因為死人(反對派或者示威者被殺)。

戰術方面:

・伊朗既清真寺同埋商人成為左支持、招募抗爭者既一個龐大網絡。”The mosques constituted a massive institutional network, perhaps the largest civil organization in the country”, “The activation of the mosque network, backed by the powerful bazaari community, was the most significant component of revolutionary recruitment.”

・係菲律賓,教會透過電台同報紙發放抗爭既資訊。”The Church-owned Radio Veritas and Veritas newspaper provided crucial coverage of the UNIDO campaign.”

・由於伊朗好依賴石油收入,油公司工人罷工影響特別大,搞到政府要捉啲工人返去返工(係香港可能唔使),但啲工人返一陣工之後都會集體蛇王。”The oil workers’ strike had the most profound impact on the Iranian economy, as the oil fields supplied the regime with its most important source of revenue”, “They tried to force oil workers to return to the oil fields, sometimes by invading their homes and dragging them back to work. The oil workers decided to go back to the oil fields, where they would work for a short time and then launch another massive walkout.”

・為左阻止 CCTVB 發放假新聞,伊朗既發電廠員工每日會熄兩個鐘大掣。”Workers at Iran’s electrical facilities began cutting off power for two hours each night in order to disrupt the state-run evening news and to offer the cover of darkness to protestors who were violating the 8:00pm curfew.”

・伊朗既抗爭者係軍隊內發放假消息,錄左君主叫軍隊射殺平民既句子,等軍隊疑神疑鬼。”The opposition began to produce hoax cassettes, supposedly containing a voice that sounded like the Shah’s giving the generals order to shoot demonstrators in the streets.”

・巴勒斯坦起義開始後,抗爭者組成左一個平行政府,其中有保安小組填補警隊既空間。”Soon after the launch of the intifada, an entire network of popular committees formed on an ad hoc basis to establish an alternative organization infrastructure to meet people’s needs and provide some of the services previously administered by Israel and its appointees. The popular committees… included education committees, medical-relief committees, social-reform committees, agricultural committees, merchants’ committees, and guard committees, which provided advance warning of attacks from soldiers and settlers and filled the law and order gap left by the resignation of the police.”

・巴勒斯坦人冇得用 Telegram,所以要靠派傳單統籌成場運動。 “The UNLU maintained a visible presence by distributing regular communiques to Palestinians inside the occupied territories. These number leaflets, which appeared on street corners throughout the West Bank and Gaza approximated every two weeks, coordinated the campaigns of the resistance and indicated the specific actions.”
・Beit Sahour 村民燒晒啲身份證,跟住仲唔交稅。”The entire village of Beit Sahour burned their identity cards and refused to pay taxes to Israeli authorities.”

・菲律賓人集體㩒錢,停止幫襯藍絲,罷飲生力啤,每晚係警察宿舍出面製造噪音。”Mass withdrawal of funds from crony-controlled banks, a boycott of state-controlled media and crony businesses, including the San Miguel Corporation, nightly noise barrages, and other forms of nonviolent action.”

・巴勒斯坦除左和理非仲同時有武裝起義。勇武抗爭雖然成效不太,但都起左國際之間既宣傳作用。”A sustained violent resistance campaign may serve an important communicative role… keeping the Palestinian issue alive internationally.”

䇿略方面:

・為左防止內鬥,伊朗既反對派領袖特登避免談論抗爭成功後既細節。”To avoid creating divisions within the ranks of the opposition during the revolution, Khomeini never explicated the practicalities of the Islamist government during discussions of interviews… the ambiguous ideology… helped unite a disparate Iranian population”

・係經濟上揸住政權春袋係一個優勢。”The impact is much smaller than when the regime is more economically dependent on the resisting population.”

・反對派如果能令社會相信佢地可以取代到現時既政權而做得更好,較有機會令到政權既支持者倒戈。”Sustained pressure through civic mobilization, combined with the belief that the opposition represents a burgeoning and viable governing alternative, can influence key regime adherents, causing them to reconsider their preferences and alternatives to the status quo.”

其他:

・電視對取得國際支持幾有用,不過呢個係 1988 既事,而家要電視、Twitter、YouTube 三管齊下。”In February 1988, CBS news footage showing Israeli soldiers breaking the limbs of four Palestinian youths with rocks and clubs caused outrage around the world.”

・香港只有五大訴求,輸左俾伊朗伊斯蘭革命既「十四大訴求」- “Fourteen-point resolution”

・拉一派打一派唔係共產黨先識做,賣港既都唔係得民主黨。”The Shah’s conciliatory overtures threatened to split the opposition. Wheres the exiled Khomeini declared the Shah’s announcement a trick, leaders of the liberal opposition were more enthusiastic about the possibilities afforded by the Shah’s concessions.”

・菲律賓黑警都有 OT 錢。”Using a combination of promotions, salary raises, and other perks, Marcos created a loyal security force with broad powers and substantial autonomy from Philippine society.”

【總結】

作者統計左咁多場運動,發現最大既成功關鍵係靠血緣同民族精神 connect 軍隊同警隊。外國勢力倒頭來效果唔大,而且往往唔可靠。對香港黎講呢個係個壞消息,因為黑警已經無可救藥,黑警背後仲有同香港人亳無關係既老解。不過講返轉頭,香港作為一個中共吸水重地,最需要 connect 既可能唔係警隊而係金融界,呢方面或者仲有一絲希望。

兩位作者來自「國際和理非抗爭中心」(International Center on Nonviolent Conflict),所以成本書未免有陣膠味。特別有印象既位有:

・「邊個衝邊個就係鬼!」”Often those employ violence in mass movements are members of fringe groups who are acting independently, or in defiance of, the central leadership; or they are agent provocateurs used by the adversary to provoke the unarmed resistance to adopt violence”.

・「唔好俾藉口政府!」”As one liberal opposition activist noted, the people were well aware of the police’s destructive strategy of provocation. They gave the dictatorial regime’s agents no excuse to intervene.”

・唔係香港先有抗爭嘉年華:”Recent nonviolent campaigns in Serbia, Ukraine, Lebanon, and Egypt — where concerts, singing and street theater attracted large numbers of people (particularly young people) interested in having fun while fighting for political cause.”

・「阻止唔到衝衝子掉石,是為大台一大弱點」”there were profound weaknesses within the intifada itself, including the inability of the leadership to convince youths to stop throwing rocks”

最後,書中有幾句句子我覺得幾可圈可點:

・「製造左破壞,唔等於贏左。」”Disruption should not be confused with victory.”

・「一場運動成功與否,唔係淨係靠攞道德高地。」”Campaigns do not succeed simply because they have won the moral high ground.”

・「我地巴勒斯坦人有美德,但係輸在冇策略。」”What was lacking was a clear strategic vision. We Palestinians have virtue but no strategy.”


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