孔誥烽:從烏克蘭到香港:在帝國交界維持自主的技藝

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烏克蘭大選結束,巧克力大王Petro Poroshenko壓倒性當選,在第一輪投票已經過半數,不用有第二輪投票。Poroshenko主張烏國加速與歐洲整合、但同時又修好與俄國關係;他辱駡東部親俄民兵是恐怖分子和索馬里海盜,但同時又承諾會以和平方法跟東部分離主義者談判結局危機,可說是一個不折不扣的溫和派滑頭。

各地誤信俄帝毒媒

滑頭不是人人愛,但這或許是長久撕裂和陷入内戰邊緣的烏克蘭最需要的。他的當選,令各個在外部從不同方向拉扯烏國的力量都能找到下台階,宣佈勝利,暫時罷休。選舉結果出來後,反正已經奪得克里米亞,開始面對西方經濟封鎖和經濟衰退、股匯齊跌打擊的俄羅斯普京,即急不及待地表示願意與烏國新政府合作。而美國的奧巴馬,亦急急要安排與新總統在六月初見面。

起初世界各地的左膠誤信俄帝毒媒,聲稱烏克蘭自基輔民衆上街推翻親俄總統起,已經出現法西斯轉向。歐洲的法西斯極右派都是激烈反歐盟的,而且不少都奉普京為偶像。這些不負責任的評論無法解答爲何烏克蘭反俄和支持加入歐盟的人民會是法西斯,總之普京的宣傳機器說了,他們便相信了。結果有派代表參選總統的打正右翼旗號的法西斯團體,在選舉中一敗塗地,狠狠地打了那些「烏克蘭已成法西斯國度」論者一巴掌。

相反一直被俄帝毒媒及其盲從者奉為走在反納粹反法西斯前綫的東部親俄分裂主義民兵,則害怕民主選舉害怕到在投票期間好像塔利班、阿蓋達般,企圖以武力阻止人民投票。

Poroshenko勝出並得到各方祝福之後,基輔政府立即反守為攻,大舉清剿這些民兵。俄國會介入幫助他們的機會,看來不大。

平衡自主的芬蘭道路

當然,烏國的局勢,還不能說得上是十分穩定,但當塵埃落定後,烏克蘭可能會走上一條平衡歐盟與俄國,在平衡中小心走出獨立自主空間的道路。有論者不無道理地指出,這乃是當年在西方與蘇聯之間平衡自主的芬蘭道路。

在台灣,馬英九一直被反對者批評他在中國的帝國壓迫下處處遷就,是將台灣芬蘭化。但對於正在淪陷為一個中國城市的香港來説,如能成爲冷戰時代的芬蘭,在東西方陣營之間巧妙地維持自主,對外部帝國不隨意刺激也不卑躬屈膝,那又何嘗不是好事?

英文版:

From Ukraine to Hong Kong: The Art of Maintaining Autonomy at the Juncture of Empires
Hung Ho-fung, Ph.D.

In the general election in Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, the magnate of chocolate, was overwhelmingly elected. In the first round of voting, he already gained more than half of the votes and the second round could thus be waived. Poroshenko advocates acceleration of Ukraine’s integration into Europe, as well as reparation of relations with Russia. He denounces pro-Russia militias in Eastern Ukraine as terrorists and Somali-pirates. But he also promises to negotiate with separatists in the East by peaceful means in order to resolve the current crisis. He is therefore a full fledged slippery moderate.

A slippery fellow is not necessarily lovable to every one, but this may be what Ukraine, long ridden by splitting and at the edge of a civil war, most urgently needs. His winning the election makes it easy for all powers, that have pulled at Ukraine from different directions on the outside, to back out gracefully for the time being. When the election result came out, Russia had already seized Crimea. She now has to face economic blockade by the West, economic recession, and stock market plus foreign exchange crashes. As a consequence, Putin has impatiently expressed his willingness to co-operate with the new government of Ukraine. Obama has also rushed to arrange a meeting with the new president in early June.

Initially, left-wing jerks all over the world mistakenly believed in the venomous media of Russian imperialism and alleged that since the people of Kiev took to the streets and overthrew the pro-Russia president, Ukraine had already shown a fascist tendency. The right-wing fascist extremists in Europe are all anti-EU, and quite a few of them worship Putin. Those irresponsible comments fail to explain how come anti-Russia Ukrainians in support of Ukraine joining the EU are fascist. The left-wing critics simply believe whatever the propaganda machine of Putin spills out. Nonetheless, a blatantly right-wing fascist organization, which had sent representatives to run for the presidential election, was badly defeated in the exercise. That was a slap in the face of those claiming that “Ukraine has turned into a fascist state”.

On the other hand, the pro-Russia separatist militias in Eastern Ukraine, regarded by Russian imperialist media and their blind followers as the vanguard of anti-fascism and anti-Nazism, were so afraid of democratic election that they tried to prevent by force the people from casting their votes, just like Taliban and Al Qaeda. No sooner had Poroshenko won the election and the blessing of various powers, than the Kiev government launched a large-scale counter-attack to clean up the militias. It seems unlikely that Russia will intervene to help them.

Of course, the situation in Ukraine cannot be said to be stable. However, when the dust settles, Ukraine may embark on a line of balance between the EU and Russia. In the delicate balance, she will carefully forge a third space of autonomy. Some critics not reasonably point out that this is akin to Finland’s pathway of autonomy and balance between Russia and the West in those years.

In Taiwan, President Ma Ying Jeou has been criticized by his opponents for finlandizing Taiwan in his deferring to the oppressive China in sundry respects. However, for Hong Kong, which is now being reduced to an ordinary city along the coast of China, it may be a good thing to become something like Finland in the cold war, cleverly maintaining its own autonomy between the East and the West, neither provoking the external empires at will nor kowtowing to them.


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